I attended Bruce Norris' California Crash seminar this past weekend. Wow, it's amazing how much research Bruce conducted to create the seminar. There were over 400 graphs & charts that had to be produced. Bruce even challenged a state of California report stating that more people had migrated to the state than left. The state's representative agreed that the report now contained erroneous data but would not change the report. And these are reports that builders/developers use as gospel for their future activities!
Bruce's seminars are not only filled with great content but they add little details that make the experience so much better. And now Bruce is offering is his Investors Essentials for California Only seminar this Saturday, March 4th, for FREE!!!
I give two thumbs up to any of Bruce's seminars or materials.
posted by Bill Tan's Blog @ 11:49 AM
1 comments
1 Comments:
I want to thank my friend Robert Campbell, for thinking enough of me to add his comments and vast reservoir of knowledge to this blog. He even called me up to discuss this question.
"Is it easier and more accurate to simply focus on the rise and fall of existing home sales rather than looking at the net migration of people out of California?"
My answer is: I don't know! I don't know which one is better or more accurate because I haven't taken the time or made the effort to study the statistics to both.
Focusing on existing home sales works very well for Robert. And his 80% predictability rate speaks volumes. And I'm not going to tell him that he should be watching migration trends instead of home buying activity.
I believe that just focusing on the rise and fall of existing home sales is not right for me. I moved almost all of my clients' equities out of San Diego in 2004... and we missed the appreciation of 2005. However, as I pointed out to my clients back then, "I'm conservative and I would rather get out too soon than too late."
I believe it was last year, 2005, that San Diego's home sales market started showing signs of softening in some areas. It takes anywhere from 30 days to six months or more to traditionally sell a property. If I had waited for the existing home sales to begin to fall and then suggested that my clients sell; some of my clients may have been left in a bad or at least uncomfortable situation, and I'm unwilling to do that.
I attend seminars and listen very carefully to how Robert Campbell analyzes his statistics along with his conclusions, what Bruce Norris has to say and others that I believe are creditable and come to a decision. I've completed my homework at that point. Then I roll the dice (take action)and see what results...
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