Some Predictions for 2010

Some Predictions for 2010 according to David Goldberg, home-building analyst for UBS, a global financial services firm.

"... the government is going to do everything in its power to protect home prices...In the end; we believe that concerns about higher rates and declining mortgage market liquidity won't amount to much. In our opinion, the government continually made it clear that it is working to limit further home price declines given the serious ramifications these declines would have for both consumers and lenders."
Yes, the government will continue to do everything to maintain home prices. Higher interest rates are coming. Banks & the financial system are the base for our country's economy. The mortgage market's liquidity is the basis for much of our past prosperity & is a function of risk & reward. If investors see reduced risk & sufficient reward, they will bring their funds to the marketplace.

"Although we forecast that as many as 7 million foreclosures are likely to occur over the next several years, we believe the pace at which these homes will come to the market will be consistent with current levels. As such, the concerns around the negative impacts of rising inventory levels are overdone."
I hope that foreclosures will be allowed to come to the market faster than they are currently. They're coming at a level that is maintaining the price however they are strangling the marketplace. There are so many jobs & industries associated with real estate: building (construction & Home Depot, et al), lending (banks, mortgage bankers, loan officers, appraisers, et al), sales (real estate agents, escrow, title, et al), insurance, all of the associated industries (property management, tools suppliers, et al) and all of the employees of those industries as well as the clothing and materials they all require.

"An improvement in unemployment is the single most important predictor for the longer term health of the housing market - only by focusing on this variable can we truly understand the timing for a recovery."
So true. I wish our government would turn to restoring and improving our country's infrastructure rather than giving money and resources away. That would create a lot of jobs and actually produce tangible end products.

"Given the limited amount of high quality, finished lots coming to market, we expect the builders to increasingly consider purchasing undeveloped parcels, which represent a greater value.
Don't see this at least for a couple of years. We have millions of foreclosed on properties which need to be recycled before building new ones are feasible. It makes better sense for the lenders that take back raw land to improve them & offer them to builders.





"The longer term outlook for housing will increasingly dominate investors focus toward the end of 2010." 

Absolutely!


What ideas do you have? They may make a difference to us and to you!